A Look Ahead -- 2 January 2003

[CAPTIONING MADE POSSIBLE BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION]
>> JUST AHEAD ON "NEED TO KNOW" JACK DOYLE BEGINS A YEAR-LONG GOODBYE.
THERE IS NEW BLOOD IN THE LOCAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
AND THE STATE IS LOOKING AT ONE GRIM FINANCIAL PICTURE.
WELCOME TO POLITICS IN 2003.
TO GIVE US THE LOWDOWN ON THE YEAR AHEAD ARE TWO EXPERIENCED POLITICAL ANALYSTS.
AND WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER INSTALLMENT OF THE BUSINESS SECTION WITH THE "DEMOCRAT" AND "CHRONICLE."
That is coming UP on "need to know."

>> Thank you for joining us.
Our survey of the political landscape for 2003 will include a look at Albany where turbulent times await a legislative session.
Better start on the local level at least this year.
The shake up leading into 2003 have been remarkable.
Democrats replace party chairman Ted O'Brien with Molly Clifford.>> You know I do have a personality that oftentimes doesn't take a laid-back position on things.
Frankly if you're going to be a fighter for the community, you've got to step win both feet.
You cannot lay back and hope that things are going to get better.
You've got to be proactive and you've got to be aggressive about taking on issues and taking positions on tough issues that sometimes people are very reluctant to do.
I know the media would like to see who would be the last man standing and so on.
In the gun fight at the corral but you see for eight years while the mayor and I don't get along in terms of our philosophy we've got an awful lot done.

>> Just a little history lesson here.
Jack Doyle is the only person who has won re-election to the Monroe county executive position.
He won in 1995 and again in 1999.
Keep in mind that the position has only been an elected one the last 20 years.
Now let's bring in our experts, curt Smith, an author, columnist, former political speech writer and currently has his own nightly radio talk show and Rick dollinger a former county legislature who rose to the state senate where he spent the last decade or so before stepping down.
Thank you both for coming.
Before we look to the future, let's look to the past.
What is jack Doyle's legacy, curt?

>> I think jack Doyle will be remembered finally he was a person easier to respect and to like.
I think he liked it that way.
He was person of steela scholar and a historian.
Margaret thatcher said there are two kinds of politics and conviction politicians and Non.
Jack was.
Rick and I hate the French but they have a marvelous phrase, a serious man.
Jafk Doyle was and is.

>> No question about it he was a serious guy.
I think his legacy will involve the failure to raise property taxes.
That is -- he claims that as his felter in his cap.
But for my point of view that is a mixed blessing.
While he didn't raise property taxes he lost the opportunity with lots of good things.
Appears as though the tobacco money is all gone.
All taken away.
I think there were innovations that could have been done on local levels to control, even though welfare roles were down, things could have been done.
I think there were opportunities missed.

>> would you believe, I think jack is a man of conviction.
I don't dispute that.
Jack is a fighter for his convictions, I think those are important.

>> Did he go overboard?

>> That depends on your perspective.
I think it's very interesting.
I have not been uncritical of jack Doyle.
I thought it was major blunder in 2001 when he tried in essence to instill a thruway ex pit.
Did I not want it.
He committed the cardinal sin, he went against his political base.
By and large people in rural counties liked the ten or of the stewardship.
Less government.
Less spending by and large at least in terms of a race.
Less taxes that is Rick said I think is his quest.
I think had he chose to run again he easily would have beaten any of the democrats with possible exception of the mayor.
I think that would have been use that great southern turn as close as fuzz on a Tick's ear.

>> One thing about jack, I think that if good fighter for your issue, you have to fight when the ring is on and the bell sounds.
He sometimes you have to step out of the ring and act as a good leader and provide inspiration, provide new ideas.
I think jack was very good in the ring, he was throw punches with the best of them.
The problem was he couldn't figure out when to step out and to lead with new ideas and new --

>> My take on jack Doyle was that he was one of the best hands on county executives we ever had.
Jack Doyle knew county government.
Jack Doyle was the kind of guy who, when he had -- when they had contracts to deal with -- jack Doyle would be looking over those contracts.

>> His legal background.

>> Was he above king?
I don't think.
Bob king was the broader thinker.
I'm not sure that jack was --

>> I think the --

>> I think jack Doyle had a vision.
He may not agree with that, it was a minimalist vision in terms of government.
He may know a policy for.
That he stead the power to tax can be abused.
I think he was correct.
My concern is that he did not use enough of his enormous popularity and leverage to as Rick suggest, fair greatly.
He could have done more I think in terms of the prosperity of the soccer stadium, the performing arts center because I think that those are the kind of extra dimension, high visibility, glitz and glitter that he looked at somewhat with disdain.
I think more and more this community needs.

>> But, curt, that's where he missed the boat.
Because looking back, everybody will have to acknowledge this was the NIRVANA OF political experiences.
You had more money than you knew what to do with, there were more revenues coming in.
The tobacco money showed up.
There was lots of money to do things, it was a time for new ideas.

>> In all honesty --

>> Even a greater success.

>> In all hop he is thee mayor Johnson agrees with this as well the Achilles heel will be the problems from the new county executive the unfunded mandates from both Washington and Albany.
Programs come to him they give us everything, except the bucks to fund them.

>> Nothing they can do about that.
That is going to be the -- this is going to be interesting --

>> I think is the reason along with physical fatigue that Doyle did not run.
He felt hemmed in.
There was ant great deal key do in terms of that vision.

>> It's going to be a great 2003.
I'll tell you why, jack Doyle is going to be the county executive during a period of time where he's not running for re-election and we're going to have a republican candidate who knows, I think it's going to be Maggie brooks, who knows.
What is jack Doyle going to be like in this year when he is not running?

>> Well, here is the interesting thing, this is what I call the Chretien problem.
That the crime minister of Canada announced he's going to retire in tout.
He's a lame duck for 18 months.
My experience that lame ducks become huge Albatros.
Maggie brooks will not be able to criticize --

>> I don't agree with that.

>> In a sense it's the same as Richard Nixon running for president against jack Kennedy in 1960.
The Eisenhower administration given him peace and prosperity.
You simply take the success for granted, if Maggie is smart she'll talk about the future the next level.
I think that is what voters are looking for.
Not to partisan dissect in essence the last nine years.

>> What if jack Doyle does what he has done for the past ten years, which is not raise property taxes.

>> Yes.

>> It's a very difficult budget year.
He stands on that, the republicans do what they did this past year and veto him.
Or at least there's a beginning of a discussion between the county legislators and the republican side and jack Doyle. What does that do to brooks?

>> You called them republicans.
The gang of six that were term limits.
I don't know.
Maggie brooks I will be judged -- well of courser spec tif is all.
They never met a tax they didn't like.
High visibility, high prop pew late, initial returns notice are good.
She's never run a race like this.
And particularly if the democrats hoist a good candidate she will never have run against an opponent like that.
I don't think the polls, I know they don't show her leading.
Guess what, the election is not for another 11 months.

>> I think you got a discount all those polls, curt.
The numbers will show that whatever they are today you can't build your political future on this.
Because the financial crisis of the state level, the financial crisis of federal level war with Iraq, all of these things will have a trickle-down affect.

>> She's not going to disassociate herself from jack Doyle, she can't in terms of
loyalty and strategy.
Tankly -- Frankly she can't because it would be stupid.
People like the general tenor --

>> You're telling me that -- he didn't take a beating this last year during the budget crisis?
It's not -- I'm not saying that jack Doyle deserved to get beat up.
This is a tough budget year.
He had to make cuts.

>> I understand that.
Because deficit, again own republicans dant make him.
Why republicans -- because they spend so much time in the fetal position.
Those six members of the county executive who acted like democrats for that infamous night, we can't raise taxes, that's not the republican base.
That's not Monroe county.
If Maggie brooks wants to win that is not her campaign.

>> That's where you're wrong.
That's where Monroe county S. if you look at the budget cuts, impact on child care, impact on the --

>> Special interest.

>> I think you will see the --

>> the reason why that was orchestrated in my judgment was because polls at the republican dark dark.

>> Orchestrated?
It's not.
That the united way all of the people, the galaxy of social agencies couldn't wait to rate the tax payer.

>> Curt, that's where the pulse of this community S. that's where you're wrong.
I think that there is --

>> the ee litist -- may man does not want to raise taxes.

>> People were looking at it saying a 2.5% tax increase, once a decade, pay for programs that are important --

>> I tell you --

>> for quhirn and families, people said that's a reasonable thing to dovment I think jack was wrong.
If the republican run on that.

>> It truly will be Maggie brooks' quandary.
This coming year how is she going to deal with another budget crisis.
I want to bring up the other side of the coin.
Johnson hours after jack Doyle had his press conference had one of his own, said he was taking a hard lean toward the race.
Let's just say for argument sake bill Johnson is the candidate.
How does he do county wide, curt?

>> a lot better than people expect.
I asked him, would you run?
If I had to decide the answer would be yes.
I think he wants to run.
He feels quite correct that he is the only democrat who can beat Maggie brooks.
He feels like he's a heavy weight.
Part of the irony and tragedy of Doyle and Johnson that so many ways they are alike.
Both outspoken, they both never met a fight they didn't like.
They're both kind of serious we need as county executive.
I wish we had that race.
I think he runs well.
I think in his outspoken opposition to violence in the inner-city.
I think the school board, they have been way ahead of the curve.
I think he's go been a successful mayor.
People would say, well, never vote for him.

>> Rick, you also have, though, he's raised taxes almost every year that he's in office.
The city school district has not performed well.
They have their problems.
Republicans can turn that right around on the merits.

>> They will try to.
I think it's going to be an interesting race.
Because my guess is, that the republican strategy to try to define bill Johnson right off the bat.
To take his comments when he talked about consolidation of government, and talked about consolidation of schools.
My wrong recommendation to the mayor is I believe that the consolidation of government does have life here.
I think you can go to Indianapolis and Louisville, Kentucky, curt knows, these are not homes of liberals.
These are conservative republican dominated political institutions that consolidate can government.
Getting to the notion we'd run government like a business, that's a bad idea.
The mayor can get some ground on.
That careful with the school issue but I think the key thing for the mayor is, he's got to project a mission.
Got to tell people that there is a better --

>> That's why the interesting battle will be the status quo republicans and mayor --

>> This is where the fast merry and also the soccer stadium help.
We'd have neither today if not for bill Johnson.
Now you can agree as I do with them or disagree with those projects built the point is, he used political capital.
He negotiated 24-7.
He got involved with republican governor's office in terms of both.
He snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.
That's leadership.

>> What I'm --

>> What I'm asking though is the record, the record that he has on the foot of the fundamental question of taxing on the school district.
Something that he guides.
Aren't those the places that they're going to attack.
He's raised taxes to go to the say he's raised taxes.
The school district is in a mess.
They will say back to him time and time sglin my sense is, Mike, Monroe county people are smarter than that.
They know that most of the town have had to raise taxes.
The lower you get down on the chain of government the more you've had to use the property taxes.
They haven't been large, but there have been tax raise S.
Two, I think the mayor if he's going to stand up and do this he has tho say that the city has unique problems.
We have a declining fund base, unlike most of our suburban friends and so when you're faced with the declining tax base and increasing problem, you have to raise taxes to pay for it.
I think that all the reports show the bond rating for the city much better than the county.
Because the Meyer's stewardship has been inconsistent with Tom Ryan before him has been fiscally very secure.

>> the way I would phrase it is this, you're quite right about Indianapolis, in the 1980's I was senior editor there.
They coalesce the county and the city.
They were along the first municipalities may have been first in the nation.
They have saved money.
That's language, conservatives understand.
He has to do, you write about republicans trying early on to stigmatize he has once he announces for mayor, I think he will, he's got to go county executive -- I think he will go and should to Hilton and east Rochester and say, don't you think we should save taxpayers money, what are we doing in effect wasting taxpayers money?
I think he can do that.
The school board he has inoculated to a certain ex theant he has been the only one saying, why are we letting the children run the asylum?
Who is going to run these things for the democrats?

>> My guess is that when bill Johnson says shortly after jack Doyle's announcement he says that, the race were held today if I -- ism going to do it.
I personally believe that there are other good democratic candidates but in my judgment, if what we're talking about is vision, that's what democrats have to sell and they have to sell this.
Some fiscal competence with vision.
I agree with curt.
I think that raising the taxes in the city will be a detriment, consolidation will start off that way.
Only one guy in my opinion who can go out and sell that issue as a cost-saving measure, bill Johnson.

>> Talking about vision, electability.
I know this flies in the face of what a lot of republicans and democrats think, I think most electible democrat.
The agriculture argument is this, if we're in trouble as a county after eight to nine years of very strong county executive, what is the future going to hold if we ea lekt a weak county executive.
That will accentuate the problem.

>> Let's talk about the republican side.
County clerk, Maggie brooks, has been named as the Heir apparent or certain who will rub for the G.O.P.
People who you might think might be running.
I've talked to and they have said, well, looks like it's Maggie.
What is Maggie brooks the county clerk of Monroe county bring to the table?
Let's go with you, Rick?

>> She brings gender.
The notion of a republican woman I think has some attractiveness in the suburbs.
I think that she can build on legacy of jack Doyle if she's got to make a decision.
does she wrap herself in the jack Doyle Mantel and try to thrawn way?
My sense is that Maggie's numbers are very, very high in this.
But I think she's untested.
I think that what people are looking for as a manager, they like jack Doyle because they got the sense that jack was in control.
That he was running the operation.
The county would do what jack wanted done.
I think the same thing is true with the mayor.
The mayor's got the city under control.
My personal is that, Maggie's lack of making tough decisions, you don't make a lot of tough decisions as county clerk.
But making tough decisions, bill Johnson demonstrated it.
Jack Doyle demonstrated it.
Can Maggie brooks demonstrate it?
I'm not sure.
Especially if she's running.

>> If this is fascinating what you suggested about the 2003.
We know bill Johnson, he may blow up, he may lose his temper, may not.
Don't know.
We don't know about Maggie brooks, never been tested under these kind of lights.
Whil she in fact be seen to be the mayor's equal?
Will slee be seen to be heavy weight?
We don't know.
I think what Monroe county voters are looking for -- this is why I say that only Johnson conceivably can beat Maggie brooks.
She's recognized, strong, and like Doyle ethical, scholarlya leader.
May be, may not.
I think the nomination is her's if she wants it.

>> briefly talk about the democratic change, Molly Clifford who has been in the party along time, her mother was a party, can she bring some unity to a party that has struggled to be unified?
Curt, why don't you take this.

>> Struggling to be unified, they have been torn apart.
This is the political equivalent of the old radio show.
Her predecessor did a great job in papering over differences in the party.
Molly brings more outspoken style, I hope for sher sake go back and read her first press conference in essence were saying of jack Doyle, well, he's in a racist that was the message because he said of the mayor, we should have a mayor that looks like me.
The D.N.C.'s own transcript shows that was a lie.
No reference to race because reporter Joe Spechter asked, are you referring to race.
He said,, no I'm referring to policy and politics.
She must have known.
Yet they're trying to do what bill Johnson has tried to not do over the last year and half.
Johnson tried to build bridges, tried to tear down.
Democrats want to win.
They can make this into a strong versus weak race.
If they make it into a black-white race that's what she was trying to do, that is the prescription for political suicide.

>> I don't think she was trying to payment it into a black-white race.
What she was sensitive to was the notion that when jack Doyle said, someone who looks like me -- my personal --

>> It's a lie, Rick.
The transcript show id was a lie.

>> the republican party spent better part of two or three decades using the you've Fitchs on the issue of race.
Now, whether jack was intending to do that or not, I don't believe jack is a racist.
I've known jack for 20 years.
That's not jack Doyle.
But I do think jack got a little carried away in the context of that interview, tried to back it up when Spechter asked the question.
The spoint, that I think Molly Clifford is part of a new generation of democrats.
I think that Molly will look to the suburbs, which is where democrats have to do better in order to win.
And I think it's the same time she brings new energy, new enthusiasm.

>> This is not the way to do it if you divide into black versus white the numbers run seven to eight for republicans.

>> I don't think that was the context.
Her first comment in trying to dramatize jack's loose lips is someone one described loaded for the lips, which jack oftentimes being accused of -- it.

>> will be interesting to see whether they agree with you.
That is where this election is going to be --

>> Gentlemen, I got about a minute left.
Want to ask this quickly, the state is facing what George Pataki called the worst fiscal situation. What is he going to do?
Is he going to raise taxes?

>> This is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
Finally George has been running around as Dr. Jekyll.
I think he's a democrat, as big as I am.

>> He's more of a democrat than you are.

>> Without the convictions.

>> But come out and cut budgets, have to raise taxes, there's nothing he can do.
He's trapped.
We'll find out --

>> He's going to raise income taxes?

>> My guess is he raises the sales tax puts a patriot penny in place two, year, 1%.

>> He ran a dishonest election.
He ran George Pataki as -- he knew there would be a deficit and need for giant tax increase.
The media didn't press him on it.
He's going to pay politically this year and he should.

>> How is he going go to pay?

>> He'll see the very artificial high popularity figures which don't measure the kind of passion.
You're going to see them start to drop through the floor.

>> My guess, any governor trying to run for fourth term has real problem.
Nelson Rockefeller was able to pull it off.
George Pataki runs into the same numbers, he will be running --

>> That's the last word.
Thank you, gentlemen.
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