>>
GARY WALKER: JUST AHEAD ON "NEED TO KNOW," IT'S TAX SEASON.
MOST PEOPLE ARE SIZING UP THEIR FINANCIAL HEALTH. FROM THE UNCERTAINTY
OF TODAY'S STOCK MARKET TO RETIREMENT PLANNING AND COLLEGE TUITION
COSTS, PEOPLE HAVE MORE FINANCIAL CONCERNS THAN EVER BEFORE.
WE'LL SORT OUT YOUR OPTIONS WITH RENOWN FINANCIAL PLANNER JONATHAN
POND AND SHOW YOU HOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF YOUR MONEY. IT'S ALL
COMING UP NEXT ON "NEED TO KNOW."
(MUSIC)
>>
THIS IS "NEED TO KNOW," THE ROCHESTER AREA'S ONLY IN-DEPTH NEWS
PROGRAM. "NEED TO KNOW" IS A PRODUCTION OF WXXI NEWS AND PUBLIC
AFFAIRS, COVERING ISSUES, POLITICS, EDUCATION AND CURRENT EVENTS.
>> "NEED TO KNOW" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE DAISY MARQUIS JONES
FOUNDATION, BY DORSCHEL LEXUS, AND THROUGH THE SUPPORT OF VIEWERS
LIKE YOU.
>>
GARY WALKER: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. I'M GARY WALKER. WHETHER
IT'S REVIEWING THE QUARTERLY STATEMENT YOU JUST RECEIVED FROM
YOUR 401K OR DAY-TRADING ON-LINE, PEOPLE ARE TAKING A MORE ACTIVE
ROLE IN THEIR FINANCIAL PLANNING AND FOR GOOD REASON. THE CENSUS
REPORTS SHOW ONLY ONE IN TEN AMERICANS TODAY IS FINANCIALLY
PREPARED TO RETIRE WHEN THEY REACH THE AGE OF 65. BUT RETIREMENT
ISN'T THE ONLY REASON FOR FINANCIAL PLANNING. PEOPLE ARE PLANNING
FOR THEIR CHILDREN'S EDUCATION AND FOR SHORT-TERM INVESTMENTS
GEARED TOWARD MAJOR PURCHASES SUCH AS NEW HOMES, CARS AND VACATIONS.
WE SPOKE WITH ROCHESTERIANS WHO HAVE THEIR OWN INVESTMENT IDEAS.
>>
I HAVE BEEN A CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR THROUGH THE YEARS. MY PORTFOLIO
AND MY IRA ACCOUNT ARE PRIMARILY IN FIXED INCOME, SO INFLATION
OF COURSE IS THE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR ME. I PROBABLY WOULD BE
65 STOCKS AND 35 SAFE INVESTMENTS. MAYBE PART OF THE SAFE PART
WOULD BE IN CASH.
>>
HE DOES MORE ON THE EQUITY SIDE WHILE I DO ALL THE HIGH-RISK
FUNDS LIKE BIOTECH AND THAT SORT OF STUFF. SO WE KIND OF BALANCE
BETWEEN THEM.
>>
I ALSO THINK THAT YOU SHOULD HAVE SOME MONEY SEEKING OUT AGGRESSIVE
RETURNS. I WOULD HAVE SAID A YEAR AGO GOING FOR SOME GOOD TECH
STOCKS, BUT ONLY A PERCENTAGE, AND HAVING AT LEAST HALF, IF
NOT MORE, OF YOUR PERCENTAGE IN LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS WHERE
YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT THE SHORT-TERM BUT YOU'RE LOOKING AT LONG-TERM
VEHICLES, WHETHER IT'S MUTUAL FUNDS OR BONDS OR WHATEVER YOU'RE
LOOKING FOR. I THINK YOU HAVE TO HAVE A BALANCED LOOK AT THINGS.
>>
GARY WALKER: FINANCIAL EXPERTS SAY PLANNING FOR RETIREMENT NOW
MEANS PLANNING FOR A LONGER RETIREMENT THAN PREVIOUS GENERATIONS.
TRADITIONALLY LIFE EXPECTANCY WAS SOMEWHERE IN YOUR MID-70S.
NOW IT'S THE MID-90S. A CHILD BORN TODAY HAS A 40% CHANCE OF
LIVING TO BE 100 YEARS OLD. THERE ARE 75 MILLION PEOPLE ALIVE
IN AMERICA TODAY WHO WILL LIVE TO AT LEAST 90 YEARS OF AGE.
A MARRIED COUPLE, BOTH AGE 65, WILL HAVE ON AVERAGE ONE OF THEM
LIVING TO AGE 90. KNOWING WHO TO TALK TO ABOUT FINANCIAL PLANNING
IS OFTEN AS DIFFICULT AS KNOWING HOW TO PLAN YOUR FINANCES.
WE SAT DOWN RECENTLY WITH FINANCIAL PLANNER JONATHAN POND TO
DISCUSS HOW PEOPLE SHOULD BE MAKING THE MOST OF THEIR MONEY.
MR. POND IS A CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANT AND FINANCIAL PLANNER.
HE IS ALSO THE AUTHOR OF ELEVEN BOOKS ON PERSONAL FINANCE AS
WELL AS A FREQUENT CONTRIBUTOR TO PBS AND NPR. WE TALKED ABOUT
ALL SORTS OF FINANCIAL TOPICS INCLUDING THE STATE OF TODAY'S
ECONOMY, WHICH IS NOT AS DOOM-AND-GLOOM AS IT'S MADE OUT TO
BE.
>>
I THINK THIS IS AN INEVITABLE DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY. IT SHOULDN'T
COME AS A SURPRISE; IT SHOULDN'T COME AS A SHOCK TO PEOPLE.
WE HAVE SOME ROUGH SLEDDING. WE'RE IN THE MIDST OF SOME ROUGH
ECONOMIC TIMES, BUT THE NUMBERS, AS YOU SUGGEST, AREN'T AS BAD
AS THEY COULD BE. I THINK FROM THE STANDPOINT OF THE INDIVIDUAL,
THEY GET CONCERNED ABOUT "WELL, HOW DO I INVEST MY MONEY WHEN
YOU HEAR ALL THIS GLOOM AND DOOM?" AND THE ISSUE, GARY, REALLY
BECOMES ONE OF THERE'S NOT MUCH YOU CAN DO BECAUSE THE MARKET
WILL REBOUND, AND MY SENSE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THAT WHEN THE SCAREDY-CATS
GET OUT OF THE MARKET, THAT'S WHEN YOU FIND THE MARKET HAS A
VERY SIGNIFICANT REBOUNDING. USUALLY THE LOSSES IN THE STOCK
MARKET ARE ACTUALLY RECOUPED IN JUST A MATTER OF WEEKS OR A
COUPLE OF MONTHS, AND IF THE SCAREDY-CATS ARE OUT THEN, THEN
THEY HAVE REALLY MESSED UP BECAUSE THEY RODE THE STOCK MARKET
DOWN AND THEN IT REBOUNDS AND THEY'RE SITTING THERE OUT OF THE
STOCK MARKET. SO THE BEST THING TO DO WHEN TIMES ARE UNCERTAIN
IS NOTHING. I'M A LITTLE BIT ENCOURAGED NOW SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE'S
SO MUCH GLOOM-AND-DOOM, AND YOU REALLY NEED TO SEE THAT. WHEN
WALL STREETERS START TO THROW IN THE TOWEL, THAT'S WHEN IT'S
GOING TO COME BACK BECAUSE THEY'RE ALWAYS WRONG WHEN, YOU KNOW,
THERE'S UNANIMITY OF OPINION ABOUT WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING
TO DO. JUST LIKE A YEAR AGO, THEY THOUGHT THE DOT-COM STOCKS
WERE GOING TO GO EVERYWHERE, THE TECH STOCKS. THERE WERE PEOPLE
SAYING "DON'T PUT YOUR MONEY ANYWHERE BUT IN TECHNOLOGY AND
PARTICULARLY DOT-COMS." WELL, WHEN WE HAD THAT PREVAILING OPINION,
WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED. NOW THERE'S A LOT OF PESSIMISM OUT THERE,
SO I'M A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ACTUALLY NOW AMIDST ALL
THIS PESSIMISM.
>>
GARY WALKER: THAT'S SOMETHING I DID WANT TO MENTION. I WAS READING
SOME OF YOUR LITERATURE AND YOU DID A REALLY NICE ANALYSIS ABOUT
WHEN YOU HAVE A BAD STOCK MARKET YEAR, THE NEXT YEAR -- ALL
THE WAY BACK TO 1950, IT HAS REBOUNDED.
>>
THAT'S RIGHT.
>>
GARY WALKER: COULD YOU EXPLAIN FOR PEOPLE THE IDEA THAT, "OKAY,
I'M LOOKING AT MY 401K AND MY RETIREMENT FUNDS AND I LOST MONEY
LAST YEAR." YOU KNOW, I WANT TO SWAP IT AROUND AND EVERYONE
IS TELLING ME NOT TO DO THAT. WHY SHOULD I NOT DO THAT?
>>
WELL, THERE'S A COUPLE OF ISSUES THERE. THE FIRST THING, AND
IT'S SO IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT HOW YOUR MONEY DID LAST YEAR BECAUSE
IN THE YEAR 2000, IF YOU LOST MORE THAN 5 OR 10% OF YOUR MONEY,
THAT SHOULD SEND UP A RED FLAG, AND BELIEVE ME THERE ARE A LOT
OF PEOPLE -- I TALKED TO SOMEBODY IN YOUR PROFESSION, AN ANCHOR,
A JOURNALIST, A HOST OF A PROGRAM IN ONE OF THE BOSTON STATIONS,
WHO PUT ALL OF HIS MONEY INTO ONE MUTUAL FUND, ALL OF HIS RETIREMENT
MONEY INTO ONE MUTUAL FUND WHICH LOST 70% OF VALUE LAST YEAR.
IF YOU LOST MORE THAN 5 OR 10%, IT BASICALLY SUGGESTS TO ME
ANYWAY, YOU WEREN'T PROPERLY DIVERSIFIED. BECAUSE LAST YEAR
THE ONLY THING THAT REALLY TOOK IT ON THE CHIN WERE GROWTH STOCKS,
GROWTH STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS AND INTERNATIONAL STOCKS. VALUE STOCKS,
WHICH ARE COMPANIES THAT, YOU KNOW, REPRESENT GOOD VALUE RATHER
THAN HIGH GROWTH -- VALUE STOCKS ARE KIND OF THE WALLFLOWERS
OF WALL STREET. THEY'RE THE COMPANIES THAT PAY DIVIDENDS AND
CHUG ALONG AND EARN MONEY AND DON'T HAVE A LOT OF DEBT. THEY
DID QUITE WELL LAST YEAR. THEY MADE MONEY FOR INVESTORS, AND
SMALL COMPANY STOCKS MADE MONEY FOR INVESTORS. SO IF YOU WERE
INVESTED IN A DIVERSIFIED FASHION, AND MIGHT I ALSO ADD BONDS.
THE AVERAGE BOND MUTUAL FUND LAST YEAR MADE 10%. IF YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE DIVERSIFICATION AMONG BONDS, GROWTH STOCKS, VALUE STOCKS,
SMALL COMPANY STOCKS, AND INTERNATIONAL STOCKS, YOU'RE GOING
TO DO FINE. THE KEY THING IS DIVERSIFICATION IS THE SAVIOR IN
THESE INSTANCES. THE ONLY TIME IT ISN'T A SAVIOUR IS WHEN YOU
HAVE A BASICALLY IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT, TO QUOTE OUR FEDERAL
RESERVE CHAIRMAN, MARKET WHERE EVERYBODY -- ALL THIS MONEY IS
CHASING THESE STOCKS THAT DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY VALUE. BUT IF
YOU DIVERSIFY, YOU'RE ALWAYS GOING TO HAVE YOUR MONEY IN SOME
AREAS THAT ARE THRIVING -- LAST YEAR BONDS, VALUE STOCKS AND
SMALL CAP STOCKS -- AND YOU'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE TOO MUCH MONEY
INVESTED IN AREAS THAT ARE DIVING -- GROWTH STOCKS AND INTERNATIONAL
STOCKS. IT WAS THOSE MANY, MANY INVESTORS WHO HAD FALLEN SO
MUCH IN LOVE WITH TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH STOCKS, BECAUSE THAT'S
WHAT FUELS THE BULL MARKET, IS THAT THEY HAVE HAD TOO MUCH MONEY
IN THERE; THEY PAID THE PRICE LAST YEAR. AND TO TAKE THIS FULL
CIRCLE, THEN THIS MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO DO A LITTLE RESHUFFLING,
BUT NOT NECESSARILY RESHUFFLING OUT OF STOCKS BUT MAKE SURE
YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE DIVERSIFICATION WITHIN YOUR STOCK INVESTMENT.
>>
GARY WALKER: I THINK THAT'S A GOOD POINT BECAUSE I THINK A LOT
OF FOLKS WHO ARE WATCHING RIGHT NOW, MAYBE THEY DON'T DO A LOT
OF THEIR OWN STOCK TRADING, BUT THEY DO GET THEIR MONTHLY STATEMENT
AND THEY DO HAVE THEIR STUFF SPLIT UP, WHETHER IT'S 25% STOCK,
25% GROWTH, SOME IN THE BOND MARKET, ET CETERA, ET CETERA. WOULD
THIS BE A GOOD TIME FOR PEOPLE TO SAY IF I HAVE 25% IN GROWTH
STOCKS AND I'M LOSING MONEY IN GROWTH STOCKS, THEN I'LL SHUFFLE
THEM INTO BONDS FOR THE NEXT YEAR?
>>
THAT'S A LITTLE TOO PRECIPITOUS, I THINK. IT'S HARD TO GENERALIZE,
BUT I WOULD SAY RIGHT NOW A REASONABLY DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO,
FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS SOME CONCERNS ABOUT INVESTMENT, MIGHT BE
25% IN BONDS. YOU'RE WRITING THIS DOWN, OKAY. BUT 25 -- A LOT
OF IT IS A FUNCTION OF AGE. 25% IN BONDS. I WOULD PUT 15% INTO
INTERNATIONAL, 15% INTO SMALL CAP AND PROBABLY 25% INTO GROWTH
AND THE REMAINING 20%, IF MY MATH IS CORRECT, INTO VALUE. AND
GROWTH RIGHT NOW -- GROWTH IS A PLACE FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS
THAT WILL COME BACK AND DO VERY WELL. BUT RIGHT NOW, IF YOU
LOOK AT THAT, MANY PORTFOLIOS LAST YEAR -- I MEAN THE S&P 500
LAST YEAR OF INDEX HAD ALMOST A THIRD OF ITS MONEY IN TECHNOLOGY.
PROBABLY THE VALUE WAS WAY SKEWED TOWARD GROWTH. BUT IN THAT
INSTANCE, LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING. YOU HAVE 25% OF YOUR MONEY
IN BONDS THAT DID WELL LAST YEAR; 15% IN SMALL CAP STOCKS WHICH
MADE MONEY LAST YEAR; 20% IN VALUE WHICH MADE MONEY LAST YEAR.
SO IF YOU HAD THAT LAST YEAR, I THINK YOU STILL MAY HAVE LOST
A LITTLE BIT OF MONEY BUT NOT MUCH.
>>
GARY WALKER: WHEN ROTH IRAS CAME ABOUT A FEW YEARS AGO, THEY
WERE MUCH BALLYHOOED. I'M WONDERING HAVE THEY LIVED UP TO THEIR
EXPECTATIONS? ARE THEY STILL THE WAY TO GO?
>>
THEY'RE EXCELLENT. THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT A ROTH IRA IS ACTUALLY
BETTER THAN A TAX-DEDUCTIBLE IRA THE IMMEDIATE TAX DEDUCTION
-- THE BENEFIT OF THAT IMMEDIATE TAX DEDUCTION IS NOT AS GREAT
AS THE BENEFIT OF PUTTING THE MONEY INTO A ROTH FOR THE PRIVILEGE
OF BEING ABLE TO TAKE THE MONEY OUT TAX-FREE WHEN YOU'RE RETIRED.
>>
GARY WALKER: MAYBE WE SHOULD EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT
TO BACK UP. THE ROTH IRA, IT'S ACTUALLY TAXED WHEN YOU PUT IT
IN, BUT WHEN YOU TAKE IT OUT, IT'S TAX-FREE.
>>
A DEDUCTIBLE IRA, YOU CAN TAKE A DEDUCTION IMMEDIATELY, AND
I'M NOT SAYING YOU SHOULDN'T DO A DEDUCTIBLE IRA, PARTICULARLY
IF YOU CAN REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE MONEY, THE TAX SAVINGS. IF
YOU'RE IN THE 28% TAX BRACKET, WHICH MOST PEOPLE ARE, PUT $2,000
INTO AN IRA IF IT'S DEDUCTIBLE, YOU CAN DEDUCT $560, 28% TIMES
2,000, IN INCOME TAX. SO THAT'S LIKE $560 IN YOUR POCKET. BUT
I HAVE RUN THESE NUMBERS SEVERAL TIMES OVER, AS HAVE OTHERS,
AND ACTUALLY, EVEN THOUGH YOU HAVE THE EXTRA $560 AND YOU HAVE
$560 MORE TO INVEST, THE ROTH, WHICH IS NOT DEDUCTIBLE, YOU
DON'T HAVE THAT 560 AVAILABLE, BUT THE ROTH IS BETTER ULTIMATELY
BECAUSE WHEN YOU TAKE MONEY OUT OF THE ROTH IRA, THE MONEY IS
NOT FEDERALLY TAXABLE.
>>
GARY WALKER: I WANT TO SPEAK A LITTLE ON ANOTHER TOPIC THAT
I KNOW OUR AUDIENCE IS INTERESTED IN. AS YOU APPROACH RETIREMENT
AGE, THERE'S THIS QUESTION THAT -- IN OUR QUESTIONNAIRES FOR
WORK, WE ALWAYS GET, YOU KNOW, DO YOU WANT TO TAKE IT OUT AS
A LUMP SUM? DO YOU WANT TO TAKE A LOT OF MONEY OUT WHEN YOU
RETIRE? DO YOU WANT TO SEGMENT ALONG A CERTAIN NUMBER OF YEARS...
MANY PEOPLE I TALK TO APPROACHING RETIREMENT, THIS QUESTION
LOOMS KIND OF LARGE TO THEM. YOU KNOW, "I AM GOING TO BE RETIRED
PRETTY SOON. NOW WHAT? DO I TAKE A BIG CHUNK OF MONEY OUT? DO
I LIVE ON A MONTHLY... WHAT DO I DO? DO I TAKE AN ANNUITY?"
>>
OKAY. IT'S SO IMPORTANT FOR RETIREES AND PEOPLE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF RETIREMENT TO START THINKING ABOUT THESE THINGS. I REFER
TO THESE -- I AM GOING TO DEAL WITH TWO ISSUES HERE THAT I REFER
TO AS THE MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL DECISIONS OF YOUR LIFE BECAUSE
I THINK THEY ARE, SHORT OF MARRYING SOMEONE WHO'S GOT $50 MILLION.
IT'S TOO LATE FOR MOST OF US. AND THE FACT IS, LET'S FACE IT,
RICH PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO HANG AROUND PEOPLE LIKE YOU AND ME,
RIGHT? SO ANYWAY, WE DEAL WITH THE CARDS THAT LIFE HAS DEALT
US. FIRST THING, A LUMP SUM OR ANNUITY, THAT'S A TOUGH DECISION.
THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT YOU CAN'T GET A STRAIGHT STORY
BECAUSE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ADVISING YOU MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
ARE EITHER PUSHING ANNUITIES OR THEY'RE PUSHING MONEY MANAGEMENT.
SO THE PERSON PUSHING ANNUITIES WILL QUOTE YOU NINE WAYS TO
SUNDAY WHY YOU SHOULD DO AN ANNUITY AND ALSO THE PERSON MANAGING
MONEY WILL SAY ANNUITIES ARE NO GOOD. NOTHING IN YOUR FINANCIAL
LIFE IS EITHER/OR AND SOMETIMES PART ANNUITY AND PART LUMP SUM
IS THE WAY TO GO. I THINK FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE RETIRING AND WHO
ARE IN GOOD HEALTH AND THEY'RE COMFORTABLE INVESTING THEIR MONEY,
I WOULD PROBABLY TAKE ALL OF THE MONEY OUT AS A LUMP SUM AND
CONSIDER ANNUITIZING LATER ON. THE MORE YOU DEFER TAKING OUT
AN ANNUITY, THE MORE MONEY YOU'RE GOING TO RECEIVE IN ANNUAL
PAYMENTS BECAUSE YOUR LIFE EXPECTANCY, OF COURSE, IS LOWER EVERY
YEAR YOU DELAY THAT. SO IF YOU'RE COMFORTABLE, TAKE THE LUMP
SUM, INVEST IT REASONABLY. DON'T GO OFF HALF-COCKED ON THESE
DOT-COM STOCKS AND THINGS LIKE THAT. AND THEN MAYBE LATER ON,
WHEN YOU'RE MAYBE 70 OR 75, START SHOPPING AROUND FOR AN IMMEDIATE-PAY
ANNUITY -- THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THERE, SOMETHING
THAT WILL PROVIDE YOU WITH A MONTHLY CHECK OR QUARTERLY CHECK
FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE, AND YOU WON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT
RUNNING OUT OF MONEY. LUMP SUMS HAVE A LOT OF ADVANTAGES AND
ANNUITIES HAVE A LOT OF ADVANTAGES, BUT WHY NOT DO BOTH? AND
ULTIMATELY, I THINK THAT MAY BE THE BEST DECISION. NOW, MY SECOND
ISSUE HERE IS ONE THAT IS EQUALLY CRITICAL. AND THAT IS I HAVE
THIS POT OF MONEY WHEN I RETIRE. HOW MUCH CAN I SAFELY WITHDRAW
FROM MY RETIREMENT NEST EGG? THIS IS ONE I SEE A LOT OF RETIREES
MESSING UP ON. WHAT HAPPENS IS IF YOU GET INTO THE HABIT OF
WITHDRAWING TOO MUCH MONEY, YOU'RE GOING TO RUN OUT OF MONEY
BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE LIVING A LONG TIME NOW. YOU HAVE TO PLAN
ON AT LEAST A LIFE EXPECTANCY OF 95 FOR RETIREMENT PURPOSES
--
>> GARY WALKER: FOR PLANNING PURPOSES? IS THAT THE AGE NOW?
>> I'M CHANGING IT NOW. FOR PEOPLE UNDER 40, I'M GOING TO 100.
THERE ARE -- YOU KNOW, A CHILD BORN TODAY HAS A 40% CHANCE OF
LIVING TO BE 100 AND THERE ARE 75 MILLION PEOPLE ALIVE IN AMERICA
TODAY WHO WILL LIVE TO AT LEAST AGE 90. I'LL GIVE YOU ANOTHER
STATISTIC: ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT TABLES, A COUPLE, MARRIED
COUPLE BOTH AGED 65, WILL HAVE ON AVERAGE ONE OF THEM LIVE TO
AGE 90.
>>
GARY WALKER: THAT REALLY BRINGS HOME PLANNING. >> THIS IS INTERESTING
BECAUSE YOU RUN THESE PROJECTIONS ON THE COMPUTER, AND THEY
ALWAYS DEFAULT TO LIFE EXPECTANCY, LATE-70S. IF YOU'RE -- I
DID A CALCULATION. IF YOU RELIED ON THAT, WHICH IS PERILOUS,
AND IT GAVE YOU THE POT OF MONEY THAT YOU THOUGHT YOU NEEDED
AND YOU WERE GOING TO EXHAUST THOSE RESOURCES AT AGE 78 OR WHATEVER
IT IS, AND YOU ACTUALLY LIVE TO 95, WHICH I THINK A TREMENDOUS
NUMBER OF PEOPLE ARE, YOU WOULD NEED 60% MORE MONEY IN THE KITTY
AT AGE 65 IN ORDER TO FUND THOSE EXTRA 16 OR 17 YEARS.
>>
GARY WALKER: YIKES!
>>
SO THAT GETS BACK TO THE POINT, HOW MUCH CAN I SAFELY WITHDRAW?
MY RULE OF THUMB IS -- AND I'M GOING TO BE PRETTY STRINGENT
HERE, BUT I THINK WE'VE GOT TO BE STRINGENT. WE NOW KNOW THAT
THE MARKET DOESN'T RISE FOREVER, THE STOCK MARKET. IF YOU'RE
RETIRING AT AGE 62 OR EARLIER, I WOULD TAKE NO MORE THAN 5%
OUT MY FIRST YEAR OF MY NEST EGG. IF YOU'RE RETIRING AT NORMAL
RETIREMENT AGE, SAY MID- OR LATE-60S, YOU CAN BUMP THAT UP TO
6%. NOW, THAT SAID, YOU TAKE 5% OUT THE FIRST YEAR AND THEN
EACH YEAR THEREAFTER YOU CAN INCREASE THE AMOUNT YOU WITHDRAW
TO ACCOUNT FOR INFLATION, AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO LOOK AT HOW
YOUR INVESTMENTS DID BECAUSE THAT -- AS LONG AS YOU'RE INVESTING
IN A DIVERSIFIED MANNER AND INVESTING FOR GROWTH AS WELL AS
INCOME, YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.
INTERESTINGLY, EVEN UNDER THOSE RULES OF THUMB, YOU WILL STILL
PROBABLY RUN OUT ABOUT AGE 100. THAT'S, YOU KNOW, TO A LOT OF
PEOPLE, THEY THINK, "WELL, GEE, I MADE 8% ON MY MONEY. I HAVE
$500,000. WHY DON'T I TAKE OUT 8% OF THAT OR $40,000?" IT'S
TOO MUCH. I HAVE SEEN THIS, AS I MENTIONED. I HAVE SEEN PEOPLE
IN THEIR MID-70S AND LATE-70S LITERALLY RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.
THEY'RE HAVING TO SELL THEIR HOUSES, HAVING TO -- YOU KNOW,
THEY'RE CONFRONTED WITH HAVING TO LIVE OFF SOCIAL SECURITY.
AND WHY? BECAUSE BACK, YOU KNOW, WHEN THEY WERE IN THEIR MID-60S,
MAKING 10 OR 15% ON THEIR MONEY, THAT'S HOW MUCH THEY TOOK OUT.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT. NOW, IF YOU REALLY WANT TO BE
ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE, AND I HAVE SEEN SOME VERY THOROUGH STUDIES
OF WITHDRAWAL RATES, AND THEY'RE SAYING 4%. AND I KNOW -- YOU
KNOW, IT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE A LOT BUT BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.
>> GARY WALKER: I'M A DIFFERENT TYPE OF INVESTOR NOW. NOW I
HAVE SOME MONEY OR WAS LEFT SOME MONEY, MAYBE 10,000, 20,000,
30,000. I WANT TO PUT IT SOMEWHERE. IN THIS MARKET, IN THIS
KIND OF UNCERTAIN TIMES, WHERE WOULD JONATHAN POND SUGGEST WE
PUT THAT MONEY?
>> OKAY. FIRST OF ALL, IT'S A BIG AMOUNT OF MONEY. FOR ME, $10,000
IS A LOT OF MONEY. IF IT'S A LOT OF MONEY, FIRST THING TO DO
IS INVEST IT SLOWLY.
>>
GARY WALKER: WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?
>> WELL, I WOULDN'T PUT MORE -- IN THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW, I
PROBABLY WOULDN'T TAKE ANY NEW MONEY THAT I HAD AND PUT MORE
THAN 20% INTO STOCKS RIGHT AWAY AND GRADUALLY, OVER THE NEXT
YEAR TO TWO YEARS, INVEST IT. WHAT YOU WANT TO AVOID IS INVESTING
A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY AT A TIME JUST BEFORE THE MARKET CONTINUES
TO DECLINE, MAYBE TAKES A SHARP DECLINE. THAT'S ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
SO THIS IS LIKE DOLLAR COST AVERAGING, REMEMBER, WHICH IS WHAT
YOU DO WITH YOUR 401KS AND IRAS. IT'S SUCH A GREAT STRATEGY
TO PUT RELATIVELY EQUAL AMOUNTS OF MONEY INTO YOUR INVESTMENT
ACCOUNT AT REGULAR INTERVALS. WELL, I THINK YOU SHOULD DO THE
SAME THING WITH A LOT OF MONEY. BUT THAT'S SORT OF A COPOUT
WITH YOUR QUESTION. IF I HAD TO PUT MY MONEY IN A SINGLE INVESTMENT
CATEGORY RIGHT NOW, I'M A CONTRARIAN, AND I THINK AT THIS JUNCTURE
SMALL COMPANY STOCKS STILL HAVE A LOT OF ROOM TO RISE AND INTERNATIONAL
STOCKS, BECAUSE THEY GOT SO BADLY HURT -- THE SITUATION OVERSEAS
IS QUITE, QUITE OPTIMISTIC. IF YOU REALLY WANT TO TAKE A FLIER,
COMBINE THE TWO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM OUT THERE. GET A SMALL
COMPANY, INTERNATIONAL STOCK MUTUAL FUND, INVESTING IN SMALL
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES. BUT THAT'S SORT OF A FLIER RIGHT NOW.
>> GARY WALKER: IT WOULD SEEM TO ME IF YOU DID HAVE SOME MONEY
TO INVEST, TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN DO YOU GET IN? WHEN THINGS
ARE LOW, WHEN THEY START COMING BACK? IS IT TOO LATE? ARE YOU
MISSING THE GROWTH? THAT'S ENOUGH TO GIVE A WOODPECKER A HEADACHE
TO FIGURE OUT.
>>
EXACTLY RIGHT. IT'S A QUESTION OF DOING IT GRADUALLY. YOU DON'T
WORRY ABOUT THAT WHEN THE MONEY IS TAKEN OUT OF YOUR PAY CHECK
FOR YOUR 401K OR YOU WRITE OUT A $2,000 CHECK, AS I HOPE PEOPLE
ARE DOING RIGHT NOW. I HOPE YOU'RE DOING YOUR 2000 IRA AND 2001
IRA THE EARLIER IN THE YEAR YOU DO IT, THE BETTER OFF IT IS
BECAUSE YOU GET MORE TAX-DEFERRED GROWTH. SO THE PROCRASTINATORS
STILL HAVE TO DO THEIR 2000 IRA BY APRIL 16TH OF THIS YEAR.
BUT THE ONES THAT ARE THE EARLY BIRDS SHOULD ACTUALLY FUND THEIR
2001 IRAS NOW. THE MORE MONEY YOU GET, THE EARLIER YOU INVEST
IT IN A TAX-DEFERRED VEHICLE SUCH AS AN IRA, THE BETTER OFF
YOU ARE ULTIMATELY WHEN YOU RETIRE.
>>
GARY WALKER: SO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THESE DAY TRADERS. I
HAVE FRIENDS NOW WHO ARE ON THAT COMPUTER AND TRADING EVERY
15 MINUTES AND, YOU KNOW, I'M NOT A BIG INVESTOR. I HAVE THE
401K, MOSTLY THE FINANCIAL PACKAGES YOU DO FOR RETIREMENT, AND
MY FINANCE ADVISOR TOLD ME WHEN WE WERE LOSING MONEY IN STOCKS,
"DO ME A FAVOR. DON'T OPEN THE ENVELOPE YOU GET EVERY MONTH
TO TELL YOU WHAT'S HAPPENING! LEAVE IT ALONE AND STAY PUT."
FOR FOLKS LIKE ME, MAYBE THAT'S WISE ADVICE TO DO NOTHING. BUT
WHAT ABOUT THE DAY TRADERS RIGHT NOW?
>>
A LOT OF THEM HAVE BEEN HAMMERED IN THIS MARKET. LAST YEAR,
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS ACTUALLY DID
THE FIRST DETAILED STUDY OF DAY TRADERS AND IT HAPPENED TO BE
IN BOSTON, MY HOMETOWN. IT WAS INTERESTING BECAUSE THEY PUT
OUT THIS PRESS RELEASE AND EVERYBODY IN THE JOURNALISTIC COMMUNITY
MISSTATED IT BECAUSE THE PRESS SAID -- THE JOURNALISTS SAID
80% OF THE PEOPLE WHO DAY TRADE LOSE MONEY.
>>
GARY WALKER: 80%?
>>
80% LOSE MONEY. BUT THE N.A.S.D., THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
SECURITIES DEALERS, WAS QUICK TO CORRECT THEM BECAUSE ACCORDING
TO THEIR STUDY, 80% OF THE PEOPLE WHO DAY-TRADED LOST ALL OF
THEIR MONEY. >> GARY WALKER: ALL OF THEIR MONEY?
>>
IT'S EASY TO DO WHEN YOU'RE LEVERAGING. I WAS ASKED RECENTLY
BY A LAW FIRM TO DO SOME EXPERT WITNESS WORK, WHICH I DON'T
DO, BUT THEY WANTED ME TO APPEAR ON BEHALF OF A WOMAN WHO'S
IN A DIVORCE CASE. HER HUSBAND HAD QUIT HIS JOB, HAD -- HE WAS
DAY-TRADING WITH ONE OR TWO STOCKS; HE LOST ALL OF THEIR MONEY.
HE BORROWED AGAINST ALL OF THEIR RETIREMENT PLANS, LOST ALL
OF THAT. SHE WISELY THREW IN THE TOWEL AT THAT POINT BUT NOW
HE'S COMING BACK AT HER TO TRY TO GET HER, FORCE HER TO TAKE
OUT A HOME EQUITY LOAN TO CONTINUE HIS DAY TRADING. SO IN SOME
RESPECTS, IT'S AN ADDICTION. THIS GUY HAS LOST EVERYTHING FOR
THAT FAMILY AND NOW HE'S TRYING TO GET THE HOUSE. AND HE PLACES
BIG BETS ON ONE OR TWO STOCKS -- THAT'S WHAT THEY DO. THEY USE
MARGIN; IN OTHER WORDS, THEY DO IT WITH BORROWED MONEY OR THEY
USE OPTIONS, AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO HAVE MUCH OF A REVERSAL,
WHEN YOU HAVE LEVERAGE LIKE THAT, TO LOSE EVERYTHING.
>>
GARY WALKER: IT SOUNDS LIKE GAMBLING.
>>
IT IS. I MEAN I THINK IN MANY RESPECTS, IT'S A LATE 20TH, EARLY
21ST CENTURY MANIFESTATION OF THE ADDICTION OF GAMBLING.
>>
GARY WALKER: WE TALKED ABOUT THE OLDER GENERATION. COULD JONATHAN
POND SPEAK TO THE YOUNGER GENERATION? YOU'RE IN YOUR 20S OR
30S; YOU'VE GOT KIDS, MORTGAGES; YOU HAVE TO HAVE TWO CARS.
YOU'RE SOMETIMES MORTGAGED TO THE HILT. YOU KNOW, THERE'S NOT...
YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT COLLEGE FOR YOUR KIDS. THERE'S NOT A LOT
OF MONEY TO SAVE OTHER THAN WHAT THEY TAKE OUT AT WORK. SPEAK
TO THAT FAMILY. SPEAK TO THOSE INDIVIDUALS AND SAY -- WHAT WOULD
YOU IMPART TO THEM?
>> SURE. NEVER TAKE FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYTHING THAT
EATS. THAT'S THE FIRST THING. (CHUCKLING) NO. OKAY. FIRST THING,
YOUNG COUPLES OR YOUNG SINGLES, GET A HOUSE. BUY A HOUSE, GET
A MORTGAGE. RATES ARE LOW NOW. INTEREST RATES ARE LOW. IF YOU
DON'T HAVE A HOUSE AND, BY THE WAY, EVEN THOSE WHO ARE NEARING
RETIREMENT WHO MAY HAVE BEEN RENTING, BUY A HOUSE NOW. IT WILL
BE YOUR BEST INVESTMENT BECAUSE IT'S GOING TO ALLOW YOU TO GET
CONTROL OVER YOUR LIVING COSTS, YOUR HOUSING COSTS DURING YOUR
RETIREMENT YEARS. THAT'S FIRST THING. SECOND THING, WITH KIDS,
IF YOU CAN AFFORD TO PUT MONEY AWAY FOR RETIREMENT, WHICH MOST
FAMILIES CAN'T DO, QUITE FRANKLY, FOR REASONS I'LL MENTION SHORTLY,
LOOK AT THE SECTION 529 PLANS. IT SO HAPPENS I HAVE MY CHILDREN
IN THE NEW YORK STATE AND THE MASSACHUSETTS PLAN. NEW YORK STATE
SECTION 529, THE QUALIFIED STATE TUITION PLAN, IS ONE OF THE
BEST IN THE COUNTRY. IT'S A GREAT WAY TO PUT MONEY AWAY FOR
KIDS TO BE ABLE TO WITHDRAW... VERY TAX-ADVANTAGED. THERE'S
A WEB SITE, WWW.SAVINGFORCOLLEGE.COM, WHICH IS A CLEARINGHOUSE.
IT'S A WONDERFUL WEB SITE RUN BY A CPA, AND IT HAS ALL THE UP-TO-DATE
INFORMATION. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO FIND NEW YORK IS AS GOOD
AS ANY, ALTHOUGH YOU CAN PARTICIPATE IN ANY STATE'S PLAN, AND
THEY'RE OFFERED BY A MAJORITY OF THE STATES NOW, BUT NEW YORK
IS A GREAT ONE. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
>>
GARY WALKER: YOU'RE ACTUALLY INVESTING IN NEW YORK STATE COLLEGES,
THE SUNY SYSTEM, SO YOUR CHILD CAN GO THERE?
>>
NO, UNDER THE QUALIFIED STATE TUITION PLANS, YOUR CHILD CAN
GO ANYWHERE. YOU'RE INVESTING YOUR MONEY, OR THE MANAGERS ARE
INVESTING THE MONEY ACCORDING TO THE CHILD'S AGE. SO AS THE
CHILD GETS OLDER, THE MONEY IS INVESTED A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY.
THERE ARE NO INCOME REQUIREMENTS. YOU CAN BE A ZILLIONAIRE AND
CONTRIBUTE TO IT. YOU CAN PUT HIGH AMOUNTS IN, AND WHEN THE
MONEY IS TAKEN OUT, IT'S TAXED AT THE CHILD'S RATE. SO THERE
ARE A LOT OF ADVANTAGES, BUT THERE'S A LOT OF FLEXIBILITY IN
THESE PLANS AND THEY'RE WELL WORTH CONSIDERING. BUT THE THIRD
ISSUE IS ONE WHERE -- WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO DO
WITH THEIR MONEY? THEY'VE GOT TO LIVE WITHIN THEIR MEANS. NO
QUESTION THAT THEY HAVE GOT TO BE PUTTING MONEY AWAY, BUT YOU
DON'T WANT TO MAKE ANY CONTRIBUTIONS TO A COLLEGE PLAN, NOR
DO YOU WANT TO MAKE ANY EXTRA PAYMENTS AGAINST YOUR MORTGAGE,
WHICH IS A NICE THING TO DO, BUT YOU DON'T WANT TO DO EITHER
OF THOSE UNTIL YOU HAVE MAXED OUT ON YOUR RETIREMENT PLAN. BECAUSE
WITH YOUR RETIREMENT PLAN, IT'S USE IT OR LOSE IT, GARY. EVERY
YEAR YOU FORGO THE IRA CONTRIBUTION, THE 401K CONTRIBUTION,
IT'S A YEAR YOU CAN'T EVER MAKE UP. SO AS PAINFUL AS IT MIGHT
BE TO SAY, "I HAVE TO CONTRIBUTE TO MY RETIREMENT PLAN RATHER
THAN JUNIOR'S COLLEGE FUND," IT'S IMPORTANT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE RETIREMENT PLAN. YOU'LL ALWAYS BE ABLE TO GET OVER THE HURDLE
OF COLLEGE. WE ALL GET OVER THAT HURDLE. BUT YOU DON'T WANT
TO SACRIFICE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE TO EDUCATE YOUR KIDS.
>>
GARY WALKER: AND, MR. POND, WE'RE OUT OF TIME. I THINK YOU HAVE
GIVEN US A FEW THINGS TO THINK ABOUT FINANCIALWISE. THAT'S THIS
WEEK'S EDITION OF "NEED TO KNOW." WE'LL SEE YOU AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
(MUSIC)